Opinion: Avoiding An Edo Situation In Oyo State - Why PDP Must Choose Wisely In The Upcoming Ibadan North Federal House Of Representatives By-Election
The People's Democratic Party (PDP) in Ibadan North Local Government faces a crucial decision in the forthcoming Federal House of Representatives by-election.
To ensure victory, it is imperative that the party selects a candidate who is popular, acceptable, and deeply connected with the grassroots. The recent governorship election in Edo State serves as a cautionary tale. Despite having an incumbent PDP governor, the party failed to win, a failure attributed to multiple factors that could very well repeat themselves in Ibadan North if the PDP is not strategic in its candidate selection.
The Edo State governorship election was a significant setback for the PDP, even though the All Progressives Congress (APC) has been widely criticized for inflicting hardship on the masses.
The APC's victory can be traced back to several issues within the PDP, including disunity among party leadership, Governor Godwin Obaseki's conflicts with key stakeholders such as the Oba of Benin, and a last-minute fallout with his deputy, Philip Shaibu.
Additionally, the PDP's failure to field a grassroots candidate who could garner sympathy votes from the masses contributed to their defeat.
In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde enjoys a good relationship with stakeholders and the masses, but this alone is not sufficient to secure a win in Ibadan North Federal Constituency.
The key to victory lies in selecting a candidate who embodies the qualities of being credible, accessible, sellable, kind, generous, and most importantly, a grassroots politician with vast grassroots experience.
*Potential Candidates and Their Profiles*
Several individuals have expressed interest in becoming the PDP candidate for the forthcoming by-election:
1. *Hon. Lanre Sarumi*: Sarumi was the PDP candidate in the last general election but lost to the late Hon. Musiliu Olaide Akinremi (Jagaban). Sarumi's defeat was largely due to his lack of general acceptance within the party and his limited grassroots presence. His reliance on his father's legacy, a former Federal House of Representatives member, and financial influence were not enough to secure a victory.
2. *Hon. Folajimi Oyekunle (DON)*: The current Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Makinde and a former Oyo State House of Assembly member. Oyekunle's initial electoral success was attributed to Governor Makinde's influence. However, his inability to secure the Assembly ticket again suggests that he lacks deep grassroots connections.
3. *Hon. Adebayo Babajide Gabriel*: Hon. Adebayo Babajide Gabriel, known as the "Jagaban of the 9th and 10th Assembly," represents Ibadan North Constituency 2 in the House of Assembly.
Like Oyekunle, Gabriel's two elections were heavily influenced by Governor Makinde's presence on the ballot. With Makinde not on the ballot this time, Gabriel's chances may diminish.
Although Hon. Babajide has represented his constituents well, but given Governor Seyi's approach, I don't think he will want to squander money on another state constituency by-election.
4. *Hon. Taiwo Lekan Salami*: Although Salami has recently gained media attention, he is not widely recognized at PDP public functions and lacks a strong grassroots presence.
His political ambition is evident, but he needs more time to build a solid relationship with the masses.
5. *Hon. Kazim Adeniyi Adeyinka (Bibire)*: A former special adviser to Governor Makinde on local government and chieftaincy matters, Hon. Bibire is a seasoned politician with extensive grassroots experience. His candidacy stands out due to his widespread acceptance, generosity, loyalty, and deep connections within the community. His past electoral experiences and relationships with key political figures make him a strong contender who can secure votes across party lines. A former candidate of the Accord Party and Zenith Labour Party for Ibadan North Federal Constituency, he should be considered as the PDP candidate for the forthcoming Federal House of Representatives by-election in Ibadan North Federal Constituency.
Hon. Kazim Adeniyi Adeyinka Bibire is a sellable, likable, kind, generous, and loyal party man, and most importantly, a grassroots politician with vast grassroots experience.
His experiences in general elections will be a plus for the PDP if he is chosen as the flag bearer. Hon. Kazim Bibire is well known among the major political parties in Ibadan North Federal Constituency, and his relationships with them will help him get more votes from the opposition.
In the PDP of Ibadan North Federal Constituency, Hon. Kazim Bibire is also well known and accepted by the majority of the members because of his kindness, generosity, and loyalty to the party. Hon. Kazim Bibire's grassroots experience and relationships with the masses were part of the reason why Governor Seyi Makinde appointed him as his special adviser on local government and chieftaincy matters, and he did not disappoint the governor.
*The Path to Victory*
For the PDP to avoid the pitfalls experienced in Edo State and ensure a win in Ibadan North, the following steps are crucial:
- *Select a Grassroots Candidate*: The party must choose a candidate who is well-known, accepted, and has a proven track record of grassroots engagement and loyalty to the party.
- *Leverage Governor Makinde's Influence*: While Governor Makinde's popularity and efforts to alleviate economic hardships are significant, they must be complemented by a candidate who can resonate with the electorate on a personal level.
- *Unify the Party*: Ensuring unity among party leadership and stakeholders is essential to present a cohesive front and avoid internal conflicts that could jeopardize the campaign.
- *Secure the Vote*: It is not enough to win votes; the PDP must also ensure that these votes are protected and counted accurately to prevent electoral malpractice by the ruling party.
In conclusion, Governor Seyi Makinde and the PDP leadership in Ibadan North must choose wisely.
The upcoming by-election is an opportunity to demonstrate strategic acumen and grassroots strength.
By selecting a sellable, acceptable, loyal, and grassroots politician as the candidate, the PDP can overcome the challenges faced in Edo State and secure a decisive victory in Ibadan North Federal Constituency. This is the only way to avoid a repeat of what happened in Edo State in Oyo State.
Despite the hardships inflicted by the ruling party (APC), Seyi Makinde must not allow them to win the forthcoming Ibadan North Federal House of Representatives by-election.